Bayesian Methods in Finance

An accessible overview of the theory and practice of Bayesian Methods in FinanceThis first-of-its-kind book explains and illustrates the fundamentals of the Bayesian methodology and their applications to finance in clear and accessible terms.Bayesian Methods in Finance provides a unified examination of the use of Bayesian theory and practice in portfolio and risk management?explaining the concepts and techniques that can be applied to real-world financial problems.This book is a guide to using Bayesian methods and, notably, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo toolbox to: incorporate prior views of an analyst or a fund manager into the asset allocation process; estimate and predict volatility; improve risk forecasts; and combine the conclusions of different models. Each application presentation begins with the basics, works through the traditional "frequentist" perspective, and then follows with the Bayesian treatment.This invaluable resource presents a theoretically sound framework for combining various sources of information and a robust estimation setting that explicitly incorporates estimation risk, and brings within reach the flexibility to handle complex and realistic models.